Ontario Businesses Adapting to Trade Uncertainty, New OCC Report Finds

(TORONTO, ON, October 1, 2026) – While a majority of Ontario businesses expect continued negative impacts from trade uncertainty, many are acting to diversify their businesses, and feeling more confident today than when the year began, according to a new Ontario Chamber of Commerce survey. 

While 44 percent of businesses lack confidence in the economy, business confidence has risen over the course of 2026, from 23 to 34 percent. This surprising improvement correlates with almost 40 percent of businesses taking action to diversify suppliers, pursue new markets, and strengthening operations in response to ongoing trade disruption. 

“Trade uncertainty is creating real pressure for Ontario businesses, but pressure isn’t paralysis,” said Daniel Tisch, President and CEO of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce. “Businesses are adapting, diversifying, and taking control of their own destinies. The Ontario Chamber study reveals a business community that is anxious about the future, but increasingly confident in its ability to navigate it.” 

Highlights of the OCC’s research: 

• 34% are confident in Ontario’s economic outlook, up from 23% in late 2025 

• 51% report confidence in their own organization’s economic outlook 

• 38% are diversifying suppliers or markets beyond the United States and Mexico (14% have already and 24% are in the process of doing so) 

• 57% expect tariffs, trade policies, and economic uncertainty to negatively affect investment or expansion plans, but this varies greatly by business size: just 12% for large businesses, and 41% for businesses with fewer than 10 employees 

• 22% report no material impact from U.S. trade policies 

• Top reactions to trade disruption include increasing prices (23%), reducing U.S. trade (19%), expanding sales within Canada (18%), and diversifying suppliers (18%) 

The implications of trade uncertainty vary across Ontario. Northern Ontario reports the highest business confidence levels, while Eastern Ontario leads the province in diversification efforts. Meanwhile, businesses in Central and Southwestern Ontario are among the most likely to report negative impacts on investment plans, reflecting the importance of manufacturing, construction, and trade-exposed sectors to those regional economies. 

With more than half of businesses bracing for continued impacts, the OCC is calling on governments to build on recent progress by enhancing the competitiveness of Ontario’s business and investment climate, accelerating market diversification, reducing barriers to growth, and investing in the trade corridors that underpin Ontario’s economy.  

“Ontario businesses are adapting, but they shouldn’t have to go it alone,” added Tisch. “By supporting businesses investing in themselves, governments can accelerate that adaptation – and give Ontario a long-term competitive advantage.”  

The Ontario Chamber study, conducted in partnership with Leger, is based on a survey of 851 businesses across Ontario between July 27 and August 17, 2026. 

The full report, entitled The Ontario Strong Paradox: Leadership Amidst Uncertainty, is available here.

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Partners 

This year’s report was developed with Research Partners, BMO and Leger.  

About the Ontario Chamber of Commerce   

The Ontario Chamber of Commerce (OCC) is the indispensable partner of business and Canada’s largest, most influential provincial chamber. It is an independent, non-profit advocacy and member services organization representing a diverse network of 60,000 members. The OCC convenes, mobilizes, and empowers business and local chambers in pursuit of its purpose: to bring inclusive and sustainable prosperity to Ontario’s businesses, workers, and communities.   

Andrea Carmona 
Director of Public Affairs
Ontario Chamber of Commerce
andreacarmona@occ.ca | Mobile: 647 234 0255